The most actively traded gold futures contract has hit repeated highs this year, most recently notching a fresh record of $2,687.30 on Tuesday before retreating. That comes after the Federal Reserve slashed US interest rates by a supersized half point last week.
Gold, traditionally perceived as a haven, has climbed roughly 30% this year, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 20% gain. That has in part been driven by a jump in demand from central banks including in China, Turkey and India, who have added to their gold piles this year to diversify away from the US dollar.
But some investors say the rally in the yellow metal also suggests that markets are still on edge about the US economy’s health, despite fresh highs in the stock market. Traders tend to flock to gold during periods of uncertainty, betting that its value will hold up better than other assets such as stocks, bonds and currencies if the economy faces a downturn.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the central bank’s post-meeting press conference last week that the whopping half-point interest rate cut was intended to get ahead of further labor weakness. Some economists have said that even after the rate reduction, the economy isn’t yet in the clear, pointing out that the unemployment rate is difficult to slow once it begins climbing. The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in August, still low by historical standards but up from 3.8% a year earlier.
Fresh consumer confidence data on Tuesday indicated that Americans are feeling pessimistic about the US economy and future of the job market. The Conference Board’s monthly confidence index slid to a lower-than-expected 98.7 reading in September, down from August’s upwardly revised 105.6.
“There is a nagging concern on the part of investors that perhaps this 50 basis point cut really is a crisis cut and that there’s more weakness in the US economy than can be seen right now,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.
That uncertainty could be a boon for gold. JPMorgan Chase researchers said in a note on Monday that they expect the yellow metal to continue running toward their 2025 target price of $2,850 an ounce as the Fed brings down rates. The central bank has penciled in a half percentage point more of rate cuts this year and a full percentage point of easing in 2025.
The Fed’s rate-cutting campaign is also increasing the allure of gold over Treasuries, which compete as a haven. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at roughly 3.7% as of 3 pm ET on Tuesday, below the more than 4% return on bonds that investors were able to scoop up just a couple months ago.
“There’s really, at this stage, no way to think about gold other than positively,” said Will Rhind, chief executive of GraniteShares.
Silver, another precious metal that tends to move in tandem with gold, has jumped roughly 34% this year, outperforming the yellow metal.
To be sure, rallies in silver also tend to reflect optimism that the economy will reaccelerate, since it’s a material used in construction of infrastructure and products like electronics, jewelry and flatware.
Silver is also a crucial material for the clean energy transition. Citi strategists wrote in a report last week that they expect solar and electric vehicle-driven demand in China, along with the Fed’s rate cuts, to help boost silver prices.
New moves from China to revive its economy also has the potential to lift precious metals, said Rhind. China’s central bank on Tuesday revealed a package of measures that includes cutting its benchmark lending rate and reducing the amount of cash that banks need to hold in reserve, which would free up money for lending.
